Four agents, each replayed over 30 days of chain history, each quoted as a range with the losses shown. You grant a session key that expires and that you can revoke in one transaction. Every marketplace misquotes you; this one shows its arithmetic — every number traces to chain state or a published assumption, and where the evidence is thin it says nothing instead.
COUNTERFACTUAL — this position was not heldchain tape
-60.3%033.7%
Warden-52.18% – -49.92%
DIY (passive)4.78% – 27.21%
60 observations, spread wider than 0.06% either side of the median.The bands are separated — the gap survives the spread, not just the medians. −64.31pp at the median.
COUNTERFACTUAL — this position was not heldchain tape
2.3%38.2%
Grid21.91% – 31.06%
DIY (passive)4.78% – 27.21%
60 observations, spread wider than 0.20% either side of the median. Every observation is above zero, which is off this axis.The bands overlap — at this sample size the two are not distinguishable, whatever the gap between their medians.
COUNTERFACTUAL — this position was not heldchain tape
-28.9%031.4%
Sentinel-24.16% – -23.83%
DIY (passive)4.78% – 27.21%
60 observations, spread wider than 0.01% either side of the median.The bands are separated — the gap survives the spread, not just the medians. −37.07pp at the median.
COUNTERFACTUAL — this position was not heldchain tape
net return on supplied capital (realized yield − switch costs), over 125h — too short to annualise honestly
0.0%0.0%
Router0.03% – 0.03%
supply to the highest-rate venue once and never move (park_policy)0.03% – 0.03%
31 of 60 observations fall within 0.00% of the median. Every observation is above zero, which is off this axis.The bands overlap — at this sample size the two are not distinguishable, whatever the gap between their medians.
median 0.03% · 60 of 60 windows finished in profit
vs doing it yourself: ±0.00pp — indistinguishable: -0.00pp is below the 0.1pp materiality floor
Router moved 1 time(s) over 250h. Best realized rate 2.98%; the widest venue gap reached 1.074pp against a 1.059pp hurdle — the edge cleared, and only just. It held the better venue on 68% of samples.
Router measured 2 PancakeSwap range(s) and entered none — size, not yield. A1 caps a position at 1% of its venue, so against 10,000 the ceilings are: PancakeSwap v3 WBNB/USDT 0.05% at +/-80 ticks tops out at 1,752; PancakeSwap v3 WBNB/USDT 0.25% at +/-400 ticks tops out at 92.